Tuesday, June 23, 2009

I love my sushi.

Japan by all accounts is the sushi capital of the world,
and I have my excuse to consider Japan. Foreigners have been piling into Japanese equities in recent months, helping the Japanese stock markets to rally nearly 30% since early March. Let the sushi times roll. With risk appetite now waning, the buying spree may not last. Japanese stocks are not as overvalued on an international basis as they once were. And there is growing evidence that Japan's economy is firmly on the fix. Indeed, I suspect Japan will grow faster than any of the major developed economies next year. The share of Japanese equities owned by foreigners at the end of 2008 was 23.6% according to the latest annual share ownership survey published by the Tokyo Stock exchange last Friday. While still high, that share represents a fall of four percentage points in the space of just one year. 2008 witnessed the greatest annual liquidation of Japanese equities by foreigners, since at least the 1970s. Last year's decision to unload Japanese shares was motivated by risk aversion after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, together with concerns about the impact of the strengthening yen.This concern was well justified as global trade and profitability of exporters was and is still a issue. Fortunately, the selling pressure has shown signs of ending. Of the major economies, Japan was the first to enter the recession and will probably be the first to lead us out of the world recession we are in the midst of today. With the US market, now clearly in the correction phase, we can expect to see 15 to 20% decline from current levels. This would only represent about half of the retracement of the recent rise from the March lows. Assuming there are no other unforeseen surprises for us in the markets. This decline should last most of the summer, if not all, and we should have a significant opportunity to buy stocks at a historically low prices. The trade that I'm now considering is therefore, (long, Japan and short, the US). With the recent rally in treasuries and the ongoing decline in commodities, the possibility of a strengthening dollar, would further boost exports coming out of Japan. Please remember, the strategies that I talk about are not to be considered as investment advice. All of these strategies have considerable risk of not working, and the potential for significant capital losses. These are strategies for experience, money managers only. Tell me what you think?

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