The technical landscape,, today's S&P high at 1105.91 is the third time in the past three weeks that the index has attempted to push above the underside of its 200-day moving average. Each try has occurred on lesser upside momentum. The May 27 test occurred with a NYSE Tick of +1318 and NYSE daily volume of 1.4 billion shares traded (CQG data) as well as 493 of the S&P 500 issues advancing on the day. The June 3 test occurred in conjunction with a Tick of +1298, NSYE daily volume of 1.21 billion shares traded and 336 of the S&P's 500 issues advancing on the day. Today's test, the third and weakest, occurred with a Tick of +1194 and NYSE daily volume of 1.13 billion shares traded. Out of 500 issues in the S&P 500, 266 were up for the session. These figures suggest that the effort to rise above the moving average is becoming exhausted.
Another subtle reason to suspect that the entire correction is complete is seen on the above chart. Each wave since the April 26 has unfolded in a Fibonacci time proportion when measured in trading days. Thus, in terms of time, wave 2 is related to wave 1 by the Fibonacci ratio (.619) at today's high. Info from Elliott Wave International.
Eduard Hamamjian
GeaSphere LLC
877-351-4902
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